I don’t do many original content posts on the market or economy as I don’t consider myself an economist or a professional trader (as well i shouldn’t). I hate giving “advice” when I probably don’t know what I’m talking about. But here’s the thing, it isn’t advice, it’s just my opinion. So remember to take what I write here with a grain of salt, do your own research and always consult a professional for advice before doing anything significant.
I have spoken with many people who seem to think that the economy is doomed and even read an article that suggested anyone buying a house these days is nothing short of brain dead. I do have some thoughts on this since the economy seems to be the hot topic these days.
Edmonton has a unique situation right now, and because of this we are able to make some estimates on what the future holds. I honestly think that Edmonton will remain near the top of the list of economically sound cities in Canada. It’s no secret that things will be slow in 2009, but real estate will not tank like everyone seems to think it will. I do see real estate being a lot more stagnant this year, which means that year over year stats will probably be predominantly negative. But I don’t think that the negative numbers will be overwhelmingly large. The media will likely blow things out of proportion like they always do, but it’s always best to ignore what the media says. Unemployment has been relatively light in Edmonton and I expect it to remain so through 2009. Unemployment and real estate are very tightly coupled, and with the Bank of Canada reducing rates on march 3rd (we all must assume this is what is going to happen), this is even more reason for people to take the home purchase plunge. BoC will likely keep rates low all through 2009, they certainly won’t boost rates until the economy starts to show signs of growth, this will be at least 2010, so that means an entire year of low rates. So low rates, low unemployment, and lots of real estate inventory can only lead me to expect Edmonton to stay on top.
I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on my forecast, as I am always open to receive criticisms.