• I found a very interesting video on the Fibonacci Rule (for trading in gold apparently).  I have my doubts on how well this really works, but it’s worth investigating at the very least.  It looks like you need a Market Club account (which i will likely look into soon).  I am skeptical about such “unexplainable” strategies, but there are a lot of things that make no sense when it comes to number theory (take a look at the Golden Ratio).  Long story short, this is a strategy i have never heard of so I would be interested to find out more about it, and how those lines are calculated in the video (honestly, i can’t find any information this anywhere).
• Here is an Article that lists those responsible (partially at least) for the economic turmoil.  My favorite part is “… and six more who saw it coming” section, which details the smart people who profited from the collapse.
• For Smith Manoeuvre people, MDJ does a good summary of the Lipson Case.  This is useful since the Lipsons attempted a SM-like tax strategy, however a lot more complex, and apparently completely illegal (though not obviously illegal).
• A nice article from Chris Davies on the employment stats for Canada as of January 2009.  Interesting to note that Alberta is relatively unaffected by the massive amount of job losses (relative to the other provinces of course).  Saskatchewan also appears to be doing rather well to weather the economic storm.  Chris also does us all a solid by providing his numbers to look at (and maybe doing something with them).
• Canadian Mortgage News had a great post on the 30 day banker’s acceptance yield, something which i have never heard of.  Seems that variable rates are driven by this yield (which was at 0.90% a few weeks ago).  He mentions the spread (prime – BAY) is high at 2.10% compared to a 10 year average of 1.69%.  While a lower BAY means a higher spread, which usually means lower variable rates, we didn’t see any adjustments yet.  However, the BoC will likely cut interest rates on March 3rd which will translate into minor subtractions from the current prime rate (otherwise the spread gets unreasonably large).  As an added note, while BoC interest rate changes affect variable rates more directly, fixed rates are not really correlated with the prime rate.  Fixed rates are governed by bond rates, as 5 year bond rates go up, you will see fixed rates go down (vice versa applies as well).  Finally, the article lists some mortgage details, and comparing my own numbers it looks like i am getting what i should be, prime + 0.8%.
• Canadian Capitalist describes in a post that you shouldn’t go out of your way to make use of the HRTC this year.  By that he means that you may have better options, such as mortgage pre-payments or RRSP contributions.  If you have money set aside for a reno project, then now may be a good time to use it, but don’t dip into your other funds just to do home renos for the tax credit.  Personally, i am torn because i don’t have a reno fund, but i do want to convert my newly acquired basement into a rent-able space to generate a new income stream.  To do this, I would have to defer prepayments (and possibly RRSP contributions).  However, the resulting income stream would be very helpful for mortgage payments.  Additionally, owning rented space is a tax deductible expense (utils + maintenance).  I am not entirely certain whether not the conversion expenses can be considered tax deductible though, i will have to enquire about this.
• Another post on the Canadian Mortgage News blog, this time about the benefits of variable vs fixed rate mortgages.  Most people know that more often than not (in fact 77%-90% of the time) variable is better than fixed.  However, it is noted in the article that this may be one of those rare times where fixed is actually better (you know, that 10%-23%).  Honestly I think that the article has substantial truth.  So why am I still going with a variable rate?  Well the answer is that in recent years, it has become much easier to estimate when the BoC will raise the rates.  So i am best off to hang on to the variable rate (in case the rates drop, which they most likely will on march 3rd) and when economists suspect the BoC to raise rates, i will lock into a long fixed term.  Additionally, 5 year bond rates are quite low these days so waiting for the rates to raise before comitting means that I might be able to lock into a fixed term at an even lower rate than today.
• A local post from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog on the weekly update last week shows that I have chosen a good time to buy (for the short time span analyzed).  Edmonton real estate numbers have returned to relatively normal numbers (whether or not this is sustainable who knows), and to make matters better the (inflated in my opinion) condo prices have dropped, while SFH prices are on the rise.
• MDJ had a cool post on getting HDTV for free!  This interests me because i currently do not have a cable package.  However, since we don’t live near the US (where the digital channel OTA switch is happening right away) I will likely not receive anything.  But in the future, when Canada finally switches over there is a good chance that free HDTV is better quality that paid HDTV.  The catch is that you don’t get all the channels.
• MDJ explains that QuickTax now lets you build your tax return for free, and then once you decide to file with QuickTax you are charged.  This is handy as you can see whether or not QuickTax is any good first before committing to purchase it.  I will definitely be trying this out in the coming weeks/months.
• more from MDJ (i like his blog ok???), where Ed Rempel describes how to use this recession to your advantage.  Through a nice chart capturing 183 years of US stock market history, we can visualize why the stock market is a good long term investment.  Additionally, it is pointed out that even in some of the most dire market conditions (the recessions and the depressions) the market tends to bounce back quite rapidly.  Will we see a quick (by quick i mean 2 to 3 years) bounce back to high annual gains?  History says yes we will!
• Canadian Mortgage News explains why waiting for better fixed rates makes no sense in this market.  If you refuse to make use of variable rate mortgages, then you might as well commit to the current rates available for fixed terms.  Contact a broker and have them hold a rate for you, you don’t have to use that rate, but you can if rates go up.  If they go down, you get a new guaranteed rate from your broker.  Honestly, I do think fixed rates will go down a little but not significantly, so unless you have time to waste while you look for your house, i suggest at least reserving a rate for yourself before March 3rd.
• Finally, to further the previous article, CMN posts an article link that helps explain how fixed rates are calculated by the lenders (PDF).  Worth a read if you are interested.

I have spoken with many people who seem to think that the economy is doomed and even read an article that suggested anyone buying a house these days is nothing short of brain dead.  I do have some thoughts on this since the economy seems to be the hot topic these days.

Edmonton has a unique situation right now, and because of this we are able to make some estimates on what the future holds.  I honestly think that Edmonton will remain near the top of the list of economically sound cities in Canada.  It’s no secret that things will be slow in 2009, but real estate will not tank like everyone seems to think it will.  I do see real estate being a lot more stagnant this year, which means that year over year stats will probably be predominantly negative.  But I don’t think that the negative numbers will be overwhelmingly large.  The media will likely blow things out of proportion like they always do, but it’s always best to ignore what the media says.  Unemployment has been relatively light in Edmonton and I expect it to remain so through 2009.  Unemployment and real estate are very tightly coupled, and with the Bank of Canada reducing rates on march 3rd (we all must assume this is what is going to happen), this is even more reason for people to take the home purchase plunge.  BoC will likely keep rates low all through 2009, they certainly won’t boost rates until the economy starts to show signs of growth, this will be at least 2010, so that means an entire year of low rates.  So low rates, low unemployment, and lots of real estate inventory can only lead me to expect Edmonton to stay on top.

I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on my forecast, as I am always open to receive criticisms.

Taxes

I recently found an article on some tax software called StudioTax.  It appears that StudioTax is a more or less free version (for personal use only) that would be competing against Quicken’s tax software.  StudioTax will be netfile certified for the coming tax season.  I will likely give it a test, but not necessarily use it to file my taxes.  If it works well with the Smith Manoeuvre, then I may use it to file my taxes this year.

• StudioTax Homepage
• StudioTax Article (thanks to canadiancapitalist.com)

Global Economy

I found a really great article that describes (in great detail) all the people who were really responsible for the crumbling global economy.  Most of the culprits hail from the US (surprise), but some hail from other major financial countries.  Included in the list are also a few who saw this whole thing coming, bet against everyone else and made a pretty penny.  Some of their stories are actually a little amusing (Andrew Lahde being my favorite).  

Read up on the Wealthiest Idiots in the World.

Alberta Economy

I don’t have much to write about the Alberta economy (other than I suspect it will do the best out of the Canadian provinces).  Just that Chris Davies has been compiling a rather large list of historical economic data for Alberta.  Perhaps one day soon (when I am not at maximum stress levels) I will do something with that data.  I will also be posting my giant list of data in the coming days for people to gaze upon (there is a lot).

Edmonton Economy

I have come across a very positive look on the coming Edmonton economy (thanks to Alberta Real Estate Watch)  This is good news, but I still take it with a grain of salt.  I think that some of these views are a bit too optimistic, but I really do think that Edmonton will fair quite well through these tough economic times.   Since I have jumped into the real estate market here in Edmonton, I have high hopes for the coming years (stay tuned for a future post on my Edmonton real estate forecast).

The S&P Dividend Aristocrats Lists

I read about this wonderful list the other day when reading an article on the Dividend Growth Investor Blog.  S&P have a couple of dynamic lists that are filled with some of their best Dividend paying stocks.  If you are interested in executing a Smith Manoeuvre then I would suggest taking a look at some of these lists.

The good:

• Best goat cheese salad I have ever had (appetizer)
• Great choice for value house wine (Chilean Sauv Blanc).  Wasn’t superb, but it was a good choice by the manager to bring taste with value.
• Desert was simple, but effective. Basically a large brownie, but it was good.  Not too much, not too little.

The bad:

• Way too loud, it was difficult to have a conversation with someone sitting 2 feet away from me.
• Privacy issues! somewhat related to the loudness, our table was about a foot away from our neighbors table. Which means that without even trying I get to listen to every conversation they are having!

Long story short? well, I wouldn’t return to this place, it just wasn’t all that great.  too bad I guess.

We went to Blue Pear Restaurant on Wednesday of last week, this was said to be the most expensive of the four restaurants that I am trying for Fork Fest 2009.  The restaurant itself is tucked away just off of 107th ave on 123rd street, not exactly clearly visible, but easy enough to find.  Something that struck me as odd was that upon arriving at the entrance, the door was locked, and you must in fact ring the doorbell to get in (after someone comes to the door to unlock it).  Inside is a fairly small room, no more than 15 tables total.  This helps keep the dining experience a little more intimate and cozy (i suppose).  There are no walls or panels separating the tables, but when you are only dining with about 4 or 5 other tables the noise level is pretty low already.

Our waitress was extremely nice and very helpful (even going as far as fetching a wine book to feed my interest in a southern Italian location that I had not heard of).  The Fork Fest menu was predetermined, which means that you don’t have much choice on what you get for dinner.  There was a nice wine feature that we ordered, it was a paired wine with each course (appetizer, entree, and desert).  While I didn’t necessarily find the wines to pair immaculately, they were pretty good and I above all else appreciated the effort (and convenience of different wine with different food for one price).  The wine feature is for two people only (or multiples of two I suppose), which could be a little disappointing, but should be fine in most situations.  Our appetizers arrived shortly, a mushroom dish which unfortunately I could barely touch (though i did give it a taste just to be sure).  I absolutely despise mushrooms (as does my girlfriend) and this was just an unfortunate situation for the both of us.  The entree when arctic char, which considering I am not a big fish fan either, was pretty darn good.  I thought the food was exceptionally good, everything on the plate complimented one another and it was just an all around good effort.  For desert, we were given a home made lemon whipped cream dish with Saskatoon berries.  The cream was very lemony and tart, something that I enjoy a lot.

To sum things up, this restaurant surely deserves its reputation as one of the finer restaurants in Edmonton.  The food was on par for what I expected it to be, and the service was exceptional.  Definitely recommended to people as something to try if you are interested in a well prepared meal at the cost of a heavy price.  The prices are on the very upper echelon of the price scale, at $89 per person.  I would likely not eat here again, but that’s just because at my stage in life, the price simply outweighs the experience.  However, for someone who is more financially secure, this restaurant certainly has an advantage over many of the other restaurants in Edmonton.

The reservations are as follows: Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday the 19, 20, and 21 will have myself and my girlfriend head to Von’s Steakhouse and Oyster Bar, Jack’s Grill, and Blue Pear Restaurant respectively.  Blue pear is tonight, so a review will follow our evening (likely tomorrow).  But for the time being, I can give a fair and unbiased review of the previous two experiences.

Before I start, I will explain that I am not the typical food reviewer, I am not snobby and I put emphasis on food rather than experience.  I am also not unrealistic (like 99% of the food reviewers out there), what I write I feel is fair and accurate.  What I write could be taken literally by someone looking to try the place out themselves.  Something else that separates me from the pack is that I usually opt for value driven wines.  I am  not interested in what the best wine a restaurant has to offer (you pay enough you can nearly guarantee a good wine).  I am interested in how well they select their value wines, because it is not difficult to find a REALLY good bottle of wine for under $20.

Von’s Steakhouse and Oyster Bar

This restaurant can be found just south of Whyte avenue on Gateway (which means you have to access it from the west on 80th ave, it will be on your right).  When we arrived (at 7:15 PM) the place was nearly empty, which I thought was a little odd, but I don’t do much dining on the week days.  As a benefit, the relative emptiness of the restaurant gave us a lot of privacy.  We were seated in one of the many booths that looks like it could accommodate up to 4 people.  The booths are separated enough to enjoy private conversation without having to reduce the amplitude of your voice, this is something I do value in a restaurant.  I’ll get this out of the way so I don’t have to get back to it, our server was friendly and prompt for the entire evening.  As you know I don’t care much about service, as long as it is reasonable, which it certainly was.  We were given some bread to start, I didn’t really like the bread, but I’m sure others might find it better.  It was something like rye with cranberries baked in, just didn’t appeal to me.  Our wine and appetizers arrived shortly after; I had the steak soup and my girlfriend had a caesar salad.  I had opted for a Chilean red wine, but they informed me they were out of stock, so I tried a Spanish wine instead.  The soup was good, kind of a salty gravy like soup with (rather large) chunks of steak in it.  The soup certainly was not a life experience, but the saltiness actually paired well with my wine.  The salad was nothing too fancy, the bacon was real bacon which was nice to see.  However, it was very crunchy, something that is also good to see, but it could also mean that it has been sitting out for a while.  None the less it was tasty.  Our meals arrived without too much delay (I would not expect much given the number of vacant tables).  We both opted for the beef tenderloin medallion.  I always order my steak rare, as i feel this is the best way to enjoy a steak; so something I look for when I order steak is whether or not the steak was cooked for the right length of time, I am pleased to say that it was.  The steak was juicy and tender, everything that i had hoped for.   I can’t go much more into detail since there isn’t much else to say, it was good.  For desert I had fresh fruit, while my girlfriend had a slice of carrot cake.  The cake was tasty, very moist and definitely delicious.  My fruit on the other hand was bland and still thawing.  Honestly, I didn’t expect much from the fruit so I was not disappointed.  All in all, I enjoyed my experience at Von’s, I really think that it is imperative for all wines on the list to be in stock, but other than that it was a good experience.  I would definitely eat here again (maybe opting to try oysters for the first time instead), however my next meal will likely be a the next Fork Fest, the prices did not match the quality of the food.  By that, I mean that the same quality of food is attainable at a lower price point in other establishments.  One last mention, by the time we left (which i can assume was around 9:00 PM) the restaurant was still relatively vacant, nothing negative, just an observation.

Jack’s Grill 

This restaurant can be found between the U of A south campus and the Southgate shopping mall.  Our reservation was for 7:30 PM, when we arrived the restaurant was already fairly busy, very few vacant tables.  We were however seated promptly, which I guess I should expect since we had reservations.  The tables are covered with paper, which struck me as odd, that is until I noticed that we had a glass of crayons near the edge.  I was a little confused as to whether or not we had been seated at a family table (and that this was a family restaurant), but I noticed that some other tables were sporting the gear.  The service was a little slower here, but understandably so since it was busy, nothing unreasonable.  The menu was a little confusing since it printed the Fork Fest price of $35 per plate at the top, then had prices of $35 for each entre as well as ~$10 for each appetizer.  You can largely ignore this (must be there so you know how much it normally costs), and just pick one of each, deserts are explained post dinner.  I ordered carpaccio and (another) filet mignon, while my girlfriend ordered the salad and the lamb.  The carpaccio was nice (I always love good carpaccio), could use a tiny bit more cheese on it, but otherwise it was pleasant.  The salad was a little strange, it looked like leafs of romaine lettuce  (unbroken) and a dressing drizzled over top.  It also came with a fish garnish (to which my girlfriend passed onto me) that looked like something sweet on a hardened bread slice with an anchovy on top.  The slice of bread is similar to what you would eat bruschetta with, the sweet something I couldn’t deduce, and I haven’t really had anchovies before (other than the, ugh, pizza 73 experiment) but it looked like one (and tasted how i expect one would taste).  To summarize, the garnish was surprisingly delicious (I was experimenting OK?!? I don’t eat all that much fish or random things that I don’t know what they are!).  After the appetizers, our meals took a little longer to arrive, longer than I would deem a comfortable waiting time.  When they did arrive, I was really getting hungry so I sadly devoured the steak a little faster than I normally would have done (don’t worry I still enjoyed it).  The steak was good, it came with garlic mashed potatoes (one of my favorites) and a large piece of brocolli.  The steak itself was not as juicy as I would have hoped, it was cooked just right but the juices were just lacking.  Unfortunate, but certainly not something to ruin my evening.  I can’t comment much on the lamb other than it was tasty and delicious.  The wine with our meal was, again, value wine.  A Chilean sauv blanc for my girlfriend, and an Argentinian red for myself.  The white was a good value wine, lots of flavour (a lot of granny smith apple).  The red was a little bland, but I’ve experienced this before from Argentina, still it was good enough to meet my required satisfaction levels.  For desert we requested a turtle pie (the chocolates, not the animals) and home made tiramisu.  Both were EXCEPTIONAL, probably the best part of the meal.  For my closing comments, Jack’s has serious privacy issues, the tables are way too close together and I can hear about 5 table conversations without even eavesdropping.  Because of this we had to lower our voices when talking to each other at our table.  I much prefer booths or at least some sort of separation between the tables at the restaurants that I frequent.  I was also a little upset that not all Fork Fest meal combinations were $35 a plate, some appetizers had surcharges applied to them (not unjustifiably, they were more expensive).  I think a better approach would be to seat people with the standard menu and an additional Fork Fest printout (like Von’s).  Finally, I cannot comment on the prices of the entres (unless they are indeed $35 a plate, which is far over priced), but the appetizer prices were a little on the over priced side, but still within range.  I would expect that (again) a similar quality meal could be found elsewhere at a better price point (and with better privacy).

That’s it for now, stay tuned for more restaurant reviews coming soon (next time probably one review per post).

Bus Route Times

Downtown Edmonton Pedway Map (PDF ~1.63MB)

Downtown Edmonton Pedway Map (PNG ~246KB)