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I don’t do many original content posts on the market or economy as I don’t consider myself an economist or a professional trader (as well i shouldn’t).  I hate giving “advice” when I probably don’t know what I’m talking about.  But here’s the thing, it isn’t advice, it’s just my opinion.  So remember to take what I write here with a grain of salt, do your own research and always consult a professional for advice before doing anything significant.

I have spoken with many people who seem to think that the economy is doomed and even read an article that suggested anyone buying a house these days is nothing short of brain dead.  I do have some thoughts on this since the economy seems to be the hot topic these days.

Edmonton has a unique situation right now, and because of this we are able to make some estimates on what the future holds.  I honestly think that Edmonton will remain near the top of the list of economically sound cities in Canada.  It’s no secret that things will be slow in 2009, but real estate will not tank like everyone seems to think it will.  I do see real estate being a lot more stagnant this year, which means that year over year stats will probably be predominantly negative.  But I don’t think that the negative numbers will be overwhelmingly large.  The media will likely blow things out of proportion like they always do, but it’s always best to ignore what the media says.  Unemployment has been relatively light in Edmonton and I expect it to remain so through 2009.  Unemployment and real estate are very tightly coupled, and with the Bank of Canada reducing rates on march 3rd (we all must assume this is what is going to happen), this is even more reason for people to take the home purchase plunge.  BoC will likely keep rates low all through 2009, they certainly won’t boost rates until the economy starts to show signs of growth, this will be at least 2010, so that means an entire year of low rates.  So low rates, low unemployment, and lots of real estate inventory can only lead me to expect Edmonton to stay on top.

I’d love to hear people’s thoughts on my forecast, as I am always open to receive criticisms.

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Taxes

I recently found an article on some tax software called StudioTax.  It appears that StudioTax is a more or less free version (for personal use only) that would be competing against Quicken’s tax software.  StudioTax will be netfile certified for the coming tax season.  I will likely give it a test, but not necessarily use it to file my taxes.  If it works well with the Smith Manoeuvre, then I may use it to file my taxes this year.

• StudioTax Homepage
• StudioTax Article (thanks to canadiancapitalist.com)

Global Economy

I found a really great article that describes (in great detail) all the people who were really responsible for the crumbling global economy.  Most of the culprits hail from the US (surprise), but some hail from other major financial countries.  Included in the list are also a few who saw this whole thing coming, bet against everyone else and made a pretty penny.  Some of their stories are actually a little amusing (Andrew Lahde being my favorite).  

Read up on the Wealthiest Idiots in the World.

Alberta Economy

I don’t have much to write about the Alberta economy (other than I suspect it will do the best out of the Canadian provinces).  Just that Chris Davies has been compiling a rather large list of historical economic data for Alberta.  Perhaps one day soon (when I am not at maximum stress levels) I will do something with that data.  I will also be posting my giant list of data in the coming days for people to gaze upon (there is a lot).

Edmonton Economy

I have come across a very positive look on the coming Edmonton economy (thanks to Alberta Real Estate Watch)  This is good news, but I still take it with a grain of salt.  I think that some of these views are a bit too optimistic, but I really do think that Edmonton will fair quite well through these tough economic times.   Since I have jumped into the real estate market here in Edmonton, I have high hopes for the coming years (stay tuned for a future post on my Edmonton real estate forecast).

The S&P Dividend Aristocrats Lists

I read about this wonderful list the other day when reading an article on the Dividend Growth Investor Blog.  S&P have a couple of dynamic lists that are filled with some of their best Dividend paying stocks.  If you are interested in executing a Smith Manoeuvre then I would suggest taking a look at some of these lists.

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The search for a house is narrowing in, I have a short list of five MLS listings that I hope to visit in the coming days.  I have been using a combination of realtor.ca and findmyedmontonhome.com to search for homes.  Given an estimated offer of 95% of the list price, and that leaves me with about $345,000 and under, which turns into about $327,000 down to about $299,000.  In my opinion, and in this market, these are good prices for a 3 bedroom freehold properties with fenced yards and double garages.  Idealy, I am looking for maximum resale value, so that means that I have to take advantage of the situation of the buyers market that we have (and are going to have for another month or two at least).  Providing that I pick up a property on the continuing downswing of prices, this gives me the leverage of comfortably offering a far lower offer than I normally would be able to, this is effectively to take advantage of the seller’s impatience.   Some sellers have had their properties on the market for quite some time, with the inventory of houses growing and growing, this can only motivate a seller to accept a lower offer when they have nothing else on the table.

As for mortgages, I narrowed things down to a set of three.  FirstLine Matrix, BMO ReadiLine, and National Bank All-in-one.  BMO is highly regarded, but it (as well as the All-in-one) lacks a key feature, portability.  Portability lets me sell my house and buy a new one, all without having to renegotiate a new mortgage.  This is especially useful when implementing a Smith Manoeuvre because a renegotiation involves liquidating the investments that are secured against the LOC portion of the mortgage.  These investments would then need to be repurchased with the new mortgage.  This could cause complications with capital gains or capital losses.  Since I have every intention of selling the house before i convert the mortgage, this is a very important feature.  FirstLine also has a very good online portal for managing the accounts (and hopefully automating transfers).  Paired with my PC Financial account, I can only hope that I will be able to completely automate the transfer of funds to the point where my routine tasks become very straight forward.  News and details on the FirstLine Matrix mortgage once I hear back from my broker.

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